In the oil market, in the expectation of an economic rebound in 2021, optimism has boosted rates again thanks to the anti-Covid-19 vaccines. In the January Nymex contract, U.S. light crude oil (WTI) rose 1.3 percent to $47.62 a barrel. In February, the Brent contract for delivery gained 0.93 percent to $50.76 per barrel.
Gold on Tuesday rebounded 1.3 percent to $1,855.30 for the Comex futures contract in February. At the end of October, the yellow metal had fallen to about $1,780, the lowest in five months, as investors fled the safe haven assets of stock markets.
In the meantime the latest macroeconomic indicators in the United States have shown some shortness of breath, while the economy rebound in China is accelerating, where the Covid pandemic seems to have ended.
In December, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index was well below estimates, at 4.9, compared to 6.9 consensus and 6.3 for its previous reading. On the other hand, Import Prices increased in the US on a month-on-month basis by 0.1 percent in November, compared to a consensus of 0.3 percent. Compared with a consensus of 0.3 percent compared to October, Export Prices increased by 0.6 percent. Finally, in November, Industrial Production increased more than expected, by 0.4% on a month-on-month basis, against a consensus of 0.3%, and by -0.9% in October.
On the other end in China, year-on-year Industrial Production in November soared 7 percent, and retail sales grew 5 percent. In the first 11 months of the year, fixed capital expenditure rose by 2.6 percent. Economists increased their growth forecasts for China following these publications. Oxford Economics now expects China’s GDP to grow in 2021 by 8.1 percent from the previously estimated 7.8 percent.
In 2020, considering a 6.8 percent plunge in the first quarter, growth is projected to be about 2 percent. According to Fitch Ratings’ new estimates, the global economy is predicted to contract by 3.7 percent this year before rebounding by 5.3 percent.